What Is a PATTERN Risk Score, and Why Does It Matter?

People hear “low” in more than one context. A low security classification and a minimum or low recidivism-risk determination are separate assessments, made for different purposes.

Risk categories are also assumed to be permanent. They are reassessed, and the First Step Act rule that produces the additional five days depends on not increasing recidivism risk over two consecutive assessments, not on a single result.

The earning rate itself is set by 28 C.F.R. § 523.42(c). Ten days of credit for each 30 days of successful participation is the base rate. The additional five days for each 30-day period requires a Bureau of Prisons determination of minimum or low recidivism risk and that the person has not increased their risk of recidivism over two consecutive assessments, implementing 18 U.S.C. § 3632(d)(4)(A)(ii).

The rule is therefore written in assessments, not in days. Reassessment happens periodically, and the Bureau of Prisons has reported that reassessments generally occur at least every 180 days. That reported interval explains why people describe a six-month wait, but it is not a universal waiting period and it is not the legal test.

Keep this separate from the rules for applying credits in § 523.44. Whether earned credits may be applied toward prerelease custody or transfer to supervised release carries its own conditions, and medium and high recidivism-risk determinations are treated differently there.